UK sheep meat production is expected to rise slightly in 2025, supported by a higher carryover of lambs from 2024, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB). The increased supply is expected to boost slaughter numbers in the first half of the year.
However, industry forecasts indicate over a 1% decline in the 2025-2026 lamb crop, bringing the total to 15.5 million head. This drop is attributed to a shrinking female breeding flock, which has been steadily declining and is expected to contract by 2.5% year-on-year.
Despite lower domestic supply, UK lamb exports are projected to grow by 0.9%, largely driven by continued demand from the European Union, particularly France. Meanwhile, imports are expected to fall by 13% due to higher domestic availability, though they remain above historical averages.
Domestic lamb consumption is set to decline by 2% in 2025 following strong demand in 2024. Economic uncertainty and reduced promotional activity are expected to dampen retail and foodservice sales, although added-value products such as pre-seasoned cuts and meal deals may help sustain interest in the category.
While the first half of 2025 will see higher lamb production due to the carryover effect, clean sheep slaughter rates in the latter half are expected to stabilize. AHDB notes that industry challenges—including a smaller breeding flock, disease risks, and unpredictable weather—could impact long-term stability. However, targeted marketing efforts, such as the AHDB’s ‘Let’s Eat Balanced’ campaign, may help maintain consumer interest despite economic pressures.